What history shows
For each kind of night: what has followed it before, how often, and what that does not tell you. These are base rates, not instructions. What to do with them is up to you.
History
Unusually large days have been rare after nights like this.
What it does not tell you
It does not say the day will be calm. A scheduled report or a surprise can still move the market, so check the event calendar on the Night Read.
In our own record
No QUIET calls scored yet.
History
Big-move days have been a little less common than average.
What it does not tell you
A normal night gives no real edge either way, and that is the honest answer on most days.
In our own record
No NORMAL calls scored yet.
History
Big-move days have followed nights like this about twice as often as usual.
What it does not tell you
It does not say when the move comes or which way it goes, only that a large range has been more likely.
In our own record
No BUSY calls scored yet.
The same question, under many conditions
After a busy night with a high-impact report before the open, on a Monday, after a gap, in a calm month: how often has a big-move day followed, how big was the typical range, and how many sessions is that based on? Every row shows its sample size.
The detailed playbook appears here once the desk publishes it.
Where this stops
The Playbook describes what has happened. Whether to trade, in which market, how big and where to enter are your decisions. We don't give trade calls, entries, stops, targets or position sizes, and past results don't predict future ones.
Want the reasoning behind a market? See the Thesis. Want to know how we measure all this? See the Method.